| human nature
(For the latest Human Nature columns on polygamy, obesity, and birth control, click here.) Older men are more likely to produce premature babies. For a mother 20 to 24 years old, the risk of bearing a child before 32 weeks' gestation almost doubles if the father is 45 to 49 years old rather than 25 to 29. The younger the mother, the stronger the effect. Previous studies have linked older fathers to some pregnancy complications, birth defects, and diseases in offspring. Interpretations: 1) Men may accumulate bad mutations as they age or are exposed to toxins. 2) Nature may discourage big age differences between parents because they're disadvantageous to the child. 3) For God's sake, she's young enough to be your daughter. (For Human Nature's take on polygamy, click here. For incest, click here.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008
Here is my Creators Syndicate column on the political landscape after Iowa and New Hampshire. I try to suggest in the first two sentences that things are very unsettled. "Five elections. Five winners." In both parties, we seem to have pretty firm factions operating. Usually there's a clear-cut difference between primaries and general elections. In seriously contested general elections, about 80 percent of the voters will vote the same way they did last time—about half of them Republican, half of them Democratic, with the proportions varying by constituency. With primaries, in contrast, voters are often all over the lot. They are not weighted down by party identification. They are ready to move anywhere. Yet sometimes they don't. There is a very high correlation in voting behavior between the Clinton/Obama race in 2008 and the Gore/Bradley race in 2000 in New Hampshire.
On Native Ground
There is plenty of evidence that interest rates might stay relatively low while the blue-chip equity market starts a new bull leg over the next year or two. As a consumer, a voter, an observer, and an investor, think of the types of industries which will be needed for this next economic cycle. If housing sucked up concrete, copper, lumber, and financing for the past decade, isn't it time for infrastructure to step up to the plate? How many roads have you seen with crumbling shoulders and deepening potholes recently? How many bridges and overpasses look like they are ready to crumble? Perhaps most telling are the projects which take five years to complete that present us with another four or six lanes on the Interstate. The hour the ribbon is cut and the politicians retire for a drink at the bar, the roads are jammed and drivers begin demanding another four lanes.
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